Estimation is at the heart of most project disciplines, and project cost and time overruns can often be traced back to inaccurate estimates.

Estimation requires human involvement to create a forecast that considers past projects, personal experience, and industry-specific knowledge and techniques. But the process of estimation is often subject to biases by the estimator.

This paper explores the problem of estimation inaccuracies from a cognitive psychological perspective. It looks at various research studies about the way in which the human brain deals with forecasting, and makes recommendations on how estimates can be improved.

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http://www.pmi.org/learning/library/estimating-science-uncertainty-10186