Estimating: the science of uncertainty

Estimation is at the heart of most project disciplines, and project cost and time overruns can often be traced back to inaccurate estimates.

Estimation requires human involvement to create a forecast that considers past projects, personal experience, and industry-specific knowledge and techniques. But the process of estimation is often subject to biases by the estimator.

This paper explores the problem of estimation inaccuracies from a cognitive psychological perspective. It looks at various research studies about the way in which the human brain deals with forecasting, and makes recommendations on how estimates can be improved.

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http://www.pmi.org/learning/library/estimating-science-uncertainty-10186